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Online Travel Market Key Drivers, Challenges & Forecast | 2035

The distribution of the global Online Travel Market Share is a classic example of a market that is, at its top level, a powerful and highly concentrated duopoly. In the third-party online booking market across most of the Western world (North America and Europe), the landscape is overwhelmingly dominated by two massive holding companies: Booking Holdings and Expedia Group. These two giants, through their vast portfolios of well-known brands, control a staggering share of all online travel bookings made through an intermediary. Booking Holdings, powered by its flagship global brand Booking.com and its strong Asian brand Agoda, has a particularly dominant position in the international accommodation market. Expedia Group, with its portfolio including Expedia.com, Hotels.com, and the vacation rental giant Vrbo, has a historically stronger position in the North American market and in the flight and package travel segments. This duopolistic structure is a result of years of strategic acquisitions and the immense economies of scale they have achieved in marketing and technology, creating a formidable barrier to entry for any potential new large-scale competitor. The vast majority of commission revenue in the OTA market flows to these two dominant players.

However, a more nuanced analysis of market share reveals a more complex picture when looking at specific verticals and regions. In the high-growth alternative accommodations (vacation rental) segment, Airbnb has carved out a clear and dominant market leadership position. While Booking.com and Vrbo are major players, Airbnb's brand has become so synonymous with the category that it stands as a third major power in the accommodation space, having built its business on a different, host-centric model. In the world of travel metasearch, the market share is also distinct. While the OTAs own major metasearch brands (Booking owns Kayak, Expedia has a majority stake in Trivago), the true dominant player in this space is Google. With its Google Flights and Google Hotels products, which are given prime real estate at the top of its search results, Google commands a massive and growing share of travel search traffic, making it the most powerful force in the travel discovery and price comparison phase of the journey.

The market share distribution also looks dramatically different when analyzed from a regional perspective. While the Booking/Expedia duopoly is a reality in the West, the massive and fast-growing market in Asia, particularly China, is dominated by a powerful local champion: Trip.com Group (formerly Ctrip). Trip.com holds a commanding market share in China's domestic and outbound travel market, a position it has built through a deep understanding of the local market, strong relationships with local suppliers, and deep integration with China's unique digital ecosystem, including super-apps like WeChat. This regional dominance highlights the fact that while the global market is consolidated, it is not a monolith, and that local players with a strong brand and a localized product can successfully defend their home turf against the global giants. The Online Travel Market size is projected to grow to USD 1105.03 Billion by 2035, exhibiting a CAGR of 4.82% during the forecast period 2025-2035.

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